18 Июня 2014

From:	John Keir, Ross Learmont Ltd
Email:	 john.keir@telia.com 
Date:	18 June 2014

Success brings its own set of challenges.

In the first quarter of 2014, the Port of Hamburg handled 2.4 million teu, of which the trade to St Petersburg accounted for 166,000 teu. Finland came second with 95,000 teu closely followed by Poland on 93,000 teu. However, the surprise package in the Baltic came in the form of the Port of Kaliningrad, which seems to be acting like one large yo-yo with general cargo throughput rising and falling with each month that goes by. On the other hand, things appear more stable on the box front, where throughput via Kaliningrad in the first four months of the year showed a 22.4% rise to register 120,877 teu.

At the other end of the country, things were also on the up. In the first five months of the year, the Far East Division of Russian Railways carried 186,300 teu, which represents a rise of 8.8% on the previous year. In May, the tempo increased as the rail division carried 39,600 teu, which equates to a 16% increase in terms of both teu and cargo weight. In the capital, Ecodor recorded a 7% increase in its May handlings compared with the previous month as 21,090 teu passed through the Podolsk terminal. The figures were down in April, when it seemed as if the upsurge in containerised exports had drained terminals of all available units. At a time when general cargo volumes seem to be declining, there appears to have been a significant shift towards intermodal traffic to cope with increased export shipments brought on by the fall in the value of the Rouble.

Of course, success in attracting ever-larger box numbers brings with it some problems. Currently, the port of Rotterdam is experiencing severe congestion due partly to late-running vessels on the main routes from the Far East. This has a severe knock-on effect for short sea lines that distribute Asian imports all around the continent. The congestion was first detected in April and could continue throughout the summer months. In the first quarter, the port of Rotterdam handled 2.9 million teu, which is only 0.3 percent more than in the same period last year.

Rotterdam’s major rival, Hamburg has coped well with major infrastructure projects that led to road traffic congestion in and around the huge port complex. Now, however, the Hanseatic port awaits a court ruling that could have a major impact on the future development of the port. The court must decide on how and when the River Elbe will be dredged. Container vessels are getting ever larger and require a greater depth of water under the keel. Situated some 100 kilometres from the open sea, Hamburg relies on regular dredging to keep the fairway to a sufficient depth to cope with ever-increasing volumes of traffic. In addition, the Elbe is not sufficiently wide to allow the giant 18,000 teu vessels to pass by each other. Even moving at a relatively slow speed, these vessels generate powerful waves that may weaken dykes, which protect the low-lying land on either side of the river. Any delay in allowing the dredging of the Elbe would have serious long-term consequences for Hamburg’s ability to absorb large increases in box traffic to the Baltic Region and beyond. In the meantime, box traffic to and from N European ports, including Hamburg showed no signs of slowing down, as container movements on the German rail network rose by 4.1% to 1.6 million teu. Overall, railfreight figures for Germany in the first quarter grew by 4.4% to 92 million metric tons.

Over in the New World, the Panama Canal is completing its plans to widen this important sea artery. The upgraded shipping canal is now expected to be opened in 2016, by which time it will be capable of taking far larger container vessels. These developments in Central America will put pressure on US West Coast ports and on Los Angeles and Long Beach in particular. The stakes are very high, as Long Beach calculates it handled USD 265 Billion worth of goods in 2013. To ensure its competitiveness, Long Beach embarked upon a USD 4.5 Billion programme to upgrade terminals and to dredge the approaches to the port.

For its part, the neighbouring Port of Los Angeles has this year allocated USD 939 million to improve its terminals and port infrastructure. Throughput figures for West Coast ports in May show a healthy 1.47 million teu, which represents a 5.8% rise on last year’s total. A similar number is being forecast for June but these figures may be distorted by importers, who, fearful of strikes at US ports, are bringing in goods ahead of any industrial action to ensure they have sufficient stocks.

At the southern tip of the continent, the story is much the same with box traffic on the rise. In the period between 2011 and 2014, container traffic at Chilean ports increased by 15 percent. In order to cope with projected traffic flows, the main terminal in Valparaiso has ordered three container cranes with a span of 62 metres, which will allow the port to handle container vessels up to 16,000 teu. That would put the Chilean port on a par with all the other major box terminals on the American continent.

Containerization is no longer the Cinderella segment of the transport industry. It has truly come of age and now heavy investment is required in vessels, ports and rail infrastructure. This, in turn, has resulted in lines forming ever-closer alliances. In the case of Hyundai, they have opted for co-operation with Orix Corp. of Japan via the sale of part of their logistics division. The Koreans will raise USD 3.2 Billion from the sale, while their Japanese partners are seeking synergies with their successful leasing and logistic businesses.

John Keir, Ross Learmont Ltd.
18 June 2014

Copyright ©, 2014, John Keir